A decision worth reasoning through.

Choose how to spend against a recurring loss — you frame it, you shape the options, you decide. The tool carries the uncertainty and shows its working.

How it works

Frame the loss in plain words, list the ways to cut it (edit costs and effects freely, add your own), then compare them on loss removed versus cost — with ranges, at a confidence level you set. It flags when a spend costs more than the loss it removes, and writes a decision record you confirm.

Frame

What are you deciding, and what would you accept?

Everything here is editable — start rough.

How often does this happen?

Pick the closest — rough is fine.

When it happens, how bad — each time?

The hit from one typical event, relative to your operation.

What would you accept — below which it's not worth chasing?

These feel too big / small for my world

So the real question is:

Options & comparison

Every way to cut the loss — compared as you choose.

Tick the ones worth carrying. You see each option's cost and loss removed as you select — and can edit any figure, rename, or add your own. Rank is by loss removed per \$ spent.

Confidence: 90%

Higher confidence = wider ranges (more of the tail included). Lower = tighter, enough to compare.

Show the working

Decide & document

Confirm the reasoning.

A short summary drafted from what you chose. Correct it if anything's off, then confirm — the full report is built from the version you confirm.

This is the checkable one-liner. Edit freely — the report below uses exactly this, plus the figures.